So your saying that if no one saw the ads, the advertisers would still pay money to put an advertisement somewhere? That’s like building a city without intending for people to live there and pay taxes.
It’s rather illogical.
Now you could argue that there is always an audience somewhere willing to watch ads, and that is true. However, I am referring to trends here, and trends as a sort of rule generally do not involve everyone, just a large minority or a small majority. The trend in youth culture (which tells us what the mainstream is going to be in 10-20 years) is that they want content now, they want it free, and they want it pure and uncluttered with advertisement. Ad has almost become a bad word, and if you say you work in
advertising people look at you as if you are covered head to toe in sh*t.
That moral zeitgeist will only intensify as people become more and more disgruntled with signs and logos being shoved in thier faces, and eventually the trend will move toward intolerance. Those that use Adblock are intolerant of Ads. I would bet someone a few bucks that those that use said program are also regular pirates of t.v shows, or at the least avid users of Tivo or Hulu (which has a very minor commercial break compared to cable).
You are correct in mentioning that a few people muting the tv or using adblock wont affect much. Its when said practices become a trend that it becomes a force for societal change, and I can see the trend building steam with every passing day. It might peter out, as some trends do, but I don’t think this one will. It is so intimately tied to the open source/freeware, Independent film, Indie game, and P2P movements that I believe it will continue to grow.
Now if you’ve been reading carefully you will notice that I never mention ‘good’ or ‘bad’. That is on purpose, because no one knows the real implications of such a thing, just as those dudes who invented the internet had no idea what they were getting themselves into. Anyone who claims to call themselves a futurist (I do) knows that change is neither good or bad, it simply is (with a few very minor exceptions such as the concept of utopia vs dystopia).
If I had to put a good or bad spin on it I would spin it in the utopian direction, simply because at the most basic level of human interaction, Sharing and Cooperation are, well, good.