[COLOR=‘Black’]I’ve already posted this at GameFAQs Episode Three board, and it got ignored. So I’m posting it here because some people actually do visit this forum.
So, as we all know, Episode Two ended on a cliffhanger. A cliffhanger that doesn’t allow room for the sequel to be a major installment - like Half-Life 3, just because it would disrupt the narrative flow - having to resolve the previous game’s loose ends before continuing with the new game’s story, mechanics and environment - or whatever happens after the Borealis. So, the next installment in the Half-Life series can’t be a game which stands on its own - it’s tied too much to the previous installment.
But we also know that it’s been long since Episode Three. Too long, in fact, for just Episode Three. It can’t possibly be that a single episode, which takes around 6-8 hours to play through from start to finish, takes 4.5 years and more to develop - even if it includes new tech and features like the previous episodes did. Even though we were promised a trilogy of episodes, that was a long time ago - and we’ve grown to shake off that promise, more so with the news that a long time ago Episode Four was developed by EA, and the old news the Valve no longer supports the Episodic model. The next installment probably isn’t an episode.
So, with two possibilities down (‘Only Episode Three’ and ‘Only Half-Life 3’), this leaves us with three other possibilities, only two of which I’ve heard so far:
A. The first one is that Valve isn’t actively developing the Half-Life franchise. This is very unlikely, as the company was built upon that franchise, it still has an active and devoted fan base, and the Half-Life franchise was always a catalyst for a change. Every time a major installment in the series comes out, it brings with it new technologies, new ways of interacting with the player and the environment, and breathes fresh wind for Valve and all of its IPs. Such a thing cannot be easily dismissed, especially with nothing to trigger it.
B. The second is that Valve is developing Episode Three and Half-Life 3 at the same time, and will announce Half-Life 3 as soon as Episode Three is released. This is very unlikely, as even if they were developed simultaneously, Valve should’ve still released Episode Three a long time ago. Also, it doesn’t make sense for Valve to spread out when it is very aware of the ‘Valve Time’, and the decision not to make players upset - something that is bound to happen once they’re spreading out and delaying the release of their products.
The last possibility, which I haven’t heard yet, is this:
C. Valve will release Episode Three alongside with Episode Four, and maybe even Episode Five in the same pack. It will do so because the episodic model has failed, but it has already far passed the point of no return as to how to arrange the storyline. Doing so will give the episodes the bigger overall scope they were hoping to achieve by ditching the episodic model and developing for several years, while still maintaining the Half-Life 2 + Episodes continuity.
This also has another advantage. In all of the other episodes, you’ve had only one goal from beginning to end - in Episode One it was ‘Escape the Citadel’, and in Episode Two it was ‘Stop the Super-Portal’. It is not far fetched to assume future episode(s) will continue the same trend - with Episode Three being ‘Reach and Explore the Borealis’, Episode Four ‘Topple the Combine Rule’, while Episode Five may take place in the Combine Homeworld, finally ending the Combine Saga started by Half-Life 2. This all makes sense story-wise, but it can only happen in a multiple episode format, which Valve doesn’t support since, at the very latest, the May 9, 2011 interview with Develop Magazine [wiki check]. The only option is to release a fully fledged game, and divide into multiple pieces.
This is also supported by the evidence that EA was developing Episode Four between the release of Episode One and Episode Two, only to be canceled shortly after Episode Two’s release. The storyline of the Half-Life 2 saga was indeed supposed to be grander than just three episodes, even though we were only promised a trilogy by Valve - but since Valve doesn’t support the episodic format from, apparently, late 2007, all work on the episodes has moved in-house, just so the saga can be completed and all of the remaining episodes could be released in tandem, so they would be identical in name but practically, they won’t adhere to the episodic model of distribution.
However, doing so will not present a new engine to replace to Source engine, like everyone is hoping for by the long wait. It will instead improve upon it, and will pave the way for Valve to develop a new engine for Half-Life 3 in the future.
CLARIFICATION: THIS IS ALL SPECULATION.
So, I think that the last option is the one that will come true. It makes sense and has far less gaping holes than the other theories out there as far as I can tell. So I just wanted to throw it out there and hear some comments about it.